The Population Reference Bureau (www.prb.org) has an extensive collection of other resources on population topics. Two handy items are:

• Glossary of population terms
• Population Handbook, which includes a Trilingual Thesaurus of Selected Demographic Terms (English, French, and Spanish).

One interesting sidenote is that English has reversed the meanings of "fertility" (number or rate of births, which is "fécondité" in French and "fecundidad" in Spanish) and "fecundity" (biological capability to have children, which is "fertilité" in French and "fertilidad" in Spanish).

Another very useful resource is the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Data Base (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/), which has historical and projected demographic data for all countries.

  **1. The total fertility rate (TFR) is simply the sum of the age-specific fertility rates for each year of age between 15 and 44 or 49. Why does the example calculation in Box 2 on page 6 require multiplying the sum of the age-specific fertility rates by 5?

  **2. Derive the TFR for Hong Kong in 2000 (0.935 in the Census Bureau's International Data Base), given the age-specific fertility rates (from the IDB) of: 4.4, 30.3, 62.7, 59.1, 26.3, 4.1, 0.2 per 1,000 per year, respectively, for ages 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years.

  3. Suppose that the TFR for a hypothetical country remains constant during 2000-2020. What circumstances could produce a steady increase in the general fertility rate during that period?

  4. The crude birth rate is the most general fertility measure, since it is based on all births and the entire population. The general fertility rate (sometimes called simply the "fertility rate") is a more specific measure, since its denominator is women of reproductive age. Age-specific fertility rates are more specific still, since they apply to narrower age groups. The total fertility rate summarizes age-specific fertility rates across all ages in a manner that is independent of population age distribution. The gross and net reproduction rates are total fertility rates that count only daughters. (Note: the TFR is not a true "rate" in the mathematical sense of a change in a quantity per unit change in another quantity [e.g., miles per hour or meters per second].) Remember to briefly explain how you arrived at each answer.

a. To which fertility measure do the numbers 1.1 and 8.0 refer in the sentence, "In 2003, fertility rates of national populations ranged from an average of 1.1 children per woman in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine to 8.0 children per woman in the West African country of Niger." (Population: a lively introduction, p4, c2)?

b. What kind of birth rates are plotted in Figure 2 (page 9)?

c. What kind of birth rates are referred to in the text of that figure (e.g., "6.8 child average")?

  5. On page 7, Joseph McFalls, Jr. writes "Thus, a population with a relatively high proportion of young people will have a higher crude birth rate than a population with a large proportion of older people." If we wanted to replace "birth" with "death" and then transform the sentence into a correct statement about mortality, what two words would we need to swap (exchange)?

  **6. The TFR and life expectancy are both "period" measures, in that each measure summarizes age-specific rates at a given point (or short interval) of time. However, the TFR is simply the sum of the age-specific fertility rates for each year of age between 15 and 44 or 49, whereas life expectancy requires a life table to calculate. What key difference between fertility and mortality leads to the use of a different approach to summarize the age-specific rates? (This question may look a lot more difficult than it is.)

  7. How will the following indicators in a hypothetical country be affected (qualitatively) if age-specific fertility rates increase by 1% each year from 2000-2050 and age-specific mortality rates remain constant?

a. TFR from 2000 to 2050

b. median age from 2000 to 2050

  8. How will the following indicators in a hypothetical country be affected (qualitatively) if age-specific fertility rates increase by 1% each year from 2000-2050 and age-specific mortality rates remain constant?

a. the sex ratio from 2000 to 2050

b. crude mortality rate from 2000 to 2050

  **9. How will the following indicators in a hypothetical country be affected (qualitatively) if age-specific fertility rates increase by 1% each year from 2000-2050 and age-specific mortality rates remain constant?

a. completed fertility rate for a cohort of women born during 1990-1994 compared to the TFR in 2000

b. completed fertility rate for a cohort of women born during 1990-1994 compared to the TFR in 2050

10. In 2003, the U.S. crude death rate was 8.5 deaths per 1,000 people per year, whereas the crude death rate for the entire world was 8.7 per 1,000 per year (see page 10, col 2).

a. About what percent of all deaths in 2003 occurred in the United States?

b. How can the crude death rates for the U.S. and the entire world be so similar when health conditions in the U.S. and most of the rest of the world are so different?

*11. "The average life expectancy in the world around 1900 was less than 30 years of age; in 2003 it was about 67 years." (page 12, col 1). Which intervention would have a greater effect on life expectancy - a rotavirus vaccine that reduces childhood deaths from diarrhea by 50,000 or an HPV (human papilloma virus) vaccine that prevents 50,000 deaths from cervical cancer?

12. If a population doubles in 35 years, what is the annual growth rate?

*13. Examine the population pyramid for Hong Kong for the year 2000 (see the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Data Base (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/) - you can view the data on which the pyramid is based by clicking the link at the bottom of the page with the pyramid; while you are there, also examine or download the pyramid and data for Sweden). What is the sex ratio (males:females) in the 50-69 year old age band in Hong Kong in 2000? Show the calculation.

14. Assume that Hong Kong and Sweden had identical age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 2000.

a. Which population would have had more breast cancer deaths in 2000? Explain briefly. (This question is easy, but it's important to be able to answer easy questions as well as difficult ones. If you don't see the answer, just come back later and read the question again - carefully.)

b. Which population would have had the higher crude breast cancer mortality rate?

15. Which of the following numbers is the best (approximate) estimate of the annual average crude birth rate in Hong Kong during the period 1995-1999, assuming low infant and childhood mortality, constant age-specific mortality rates, and minimal migration. Choose one best answer and show the derivation for your choice.

A.   9 per 1,000 per year
B. 30 per 1,000 per year
C. 35 per 1,000 per year
D. 45 per 1,000 per year